Subhenau asks:

What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as of 29 November 2024?

Started Aug 11, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 29, 2024 08:01AM UTC

With US oil stockpiles in the SPR down substantially since President Biden took office, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over what to do next (PBS, Oil Price, US House Energy and Commerce Committee, Energy.gov). The question will be suspended on 28 November 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for 29 November 2024, expected in early December 2024 (EIA). As of 28 July 2023, ending stocks totaled 346,759 thousand barrels.

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The question closed "Between 375,000 thousand barrels and 400,000 thousand barrels, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 325,000 thousand barrels 0%
Between 325,000 thousand barrels and 350,000 thousand barrels, inclusive 0%
More than 350,000 thousand barrels but less than 375,000 thousand barrels 1%
Between 375,000 thousand barrels and 400,000 thousand barrels, inclusive 97%
More than 400,000 thousand barrels but less than 425,000 thousand barrels 1%
Between 425,000 thousand barrels and 450,000 thousand barrels, inclusive 0%
More than 450,000 thousand barrels 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 392
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.161208
2.
-0.11576
3.
-0.11136
4.
-0.087977

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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