CBETANT asks:
When will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device?
Started
Aug 11, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 11, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Closed Aug 11, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Amid an flurry of ballistic missile tests in 2023, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (NBC News, Al Jazeera). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).
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The question closed "Not before 11 August 2024" with a closing date of 11 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 11 December 2023 | 0% | |
| Between 11 December 2023 and 10 April 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 11 April 2024 and 10 August 2024 | 4% | |
| Not before 11 August 2024 | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 93 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 196 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 512 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 560 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
