Youth unemployment, major debt headwinds, and other factors are leading many observers to dim their expectations for China's economic growth in the near future (CNN, Guardian, ABC Australia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using IMF real GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2025, which is expected in April 2025 (IMF). At the IMF website, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database," then click "By Countries." In the reporting tool page, 1) select "EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ASIA," 2) click the "CLEAR ALL" button, then "China," then click "CONTINUE," 3) select "Gross Domestic Product, constant prices PERCENT CHANGE," then click "CONTINUE," 4) set the "Start Year" and "End Year" as you wish, then press the "PREPARE REPORT" button. China's GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2022 was estimated to be 2.988% according to the April 2023 report (IMF - World Economic Outlook April 2023).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.