Conflicting reports regarding the Chinese government banning officials from using iPhones has raised concerns about Apple's future in the large market as domestic rivals push their own new products (Guardian, MSN, Global Times). The question will be suspended on 1 July 2024 and the outcome determined using "Net sales" for "Greater China" data in its fiscal year third quarter report, expected in early August 2024 (Apple - Investor Relations, see "Financial Data"). Apple's fiscal year ends in late September, so its third quarter reports generally cover the second calendar quarter of the year. In the second quarter of 2023 (third quarter fiscal year), Apple reported "Net sales" for "Greater China" of $15,758 million (Apple - FYQ3 2023 Earnings, see page 13, CNBC).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between $14.50 billion and $15.75 billion, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.