Good Judgment® Open | Will the President of Germany dissolve the Bundestag before 1 January 2025?
 

acepoint asks:

Will the President of Germany dissolve the Bundestag before 1 January 2025?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM
Closed Dec 27, 2024 10:00AM (9 days ago)

Germany's ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) is facing very low popularity as the far-right AfD rises in the polls (Deutsche Welle, AP, Politico - Germany Poll of Polls). Germany last held early elections in 2005 after President Köhler dissolved parliament at the request of then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (Deutsche Welle, Bundeswahlleiterin [in German]). The date the elections would take place is immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 95%
No 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 68
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186
Number of Forecasts 444
Average for questions older than 6 months: 540
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.278342
2.
-0.96446
3.
-0.925933
4.
-0.861689
5.
-0.805987

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Nov 11, 2024 11:15AM PST (46 days before close, question was 90% complete)
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