Closed Oct 25, 2023 05:56PM UTC
After the House of Representatives voted to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, the race is on to pick his replacement in the closely divided body (NBC News, BBC). While the Speaker of the House has always been a member of the House of Representatives, such is not required by the Constitution (Congressional Research Service). If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.
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NOTE 18 October 2023: A new Speaker elected with a time-limited term would count. A vote to expand the powers of the Speaker of the House Pro Tempore alone would not count.
The question closed "Another current Republican Representative" with a closing date of 25 October 2023.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Rep. Tom Emmer (MN) | 5% | |
Rep. Garret Graves (LA) | 0% | |
Rep. Jim Jordan (OH) | 1% | |
Rep. Patrick McHenry (NC) | 5% | |
Rep. Steve Scalise (LA) | 1% | |
Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY) | 2% | |
Another current Republican Representative | 82% | |
Someone else | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 69 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 634 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |