If Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023, when will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that IDF ground forces have left the Gaza Strip?
Closed Oct 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that those responsible for the early October attacks in southern Israel will "will pay an unprecedented price" as Israel mobilizes forces near the Gaza Strip (Times of Israel, AP). For the purposes of this question, "invade" means the sending of armed forces into Gaza and holding territory (i.e., mere "raids" alone would not count).
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The question closed "Not before 10 October 2024" with a closing date of 10 October 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 30 November 2023 | 0% | |
| Between 30 November 2023 and 13 January 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 14 January 2024 and 13 March 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 14 March 2024 and 11 June 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 12 June 2024 and 9 October 2024 | 2% | |
| Not before 10 October 2024 | 96% | |
| IDF ground forces will not invade the Gaza Strip before 7 November 2023 | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 117 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 190 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 688 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 548 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
