What will be the charge-off rate on US credit card loans for all commercial banks in the second quarter of 2024?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The resilience of the US consumer is in focus as interest rates rise and US credit card debt is at record levels (ABC News, NBC News, PYMNTS). Charge-offs are debts that banks "write off," or record that they don't believe they will be repaid (Investopedia - Charge-off). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once first released, expected in August 2024 (FRED).
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The question closed "Between 4.00% and 4.75%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 2.50% | 0% | |
| Between 2.50% and 3.25%, inclusive | 0% | |
| Higher than 3.25% but lower than 4.00% | 4% | |
| Between 4.00% and 4.75%, inclusive | 80% | |
| Higher than 4.75% but lower than 5.50% | 15% | |
| Between 5.50% and 6.25%, inclusive | 1% | |
| Higher than 6.25% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 22 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 117 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
