cosaib asks:
Will the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) or a CARICOM member state other than Guyana accuse Venezuela of sending military ground forces into Guyana without its permission before 3 May 2024?
Closed May 03, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Guyana, Venezuela's eastern neighbor and the fastest growing economy in the Western Hemisphere, has voiced concerns about Venezuelan actions near its border (CARICOM, Loop News, WiredJA). For over a century, Venezuela has claimed over two-thirds of Guyanese territory as its own, and the Maduro government has scheduled a controversial referendum for 3 December 2023 to vote on Venezuela's rights to that territory (Venezuela Analysis, US News & World Report, France 24). Accusations of Venezuela sending military forces to Ankoko Island alone would not count (Demerara Waves). Accusations from Associate Members would not count (CARICOM). For the purposes of this question, "Guyana" means the internationally recognized territory of the country, and both the accusation and the sending must occur during the question's open period to count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 3 May 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 2% | |
No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 40 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 196 | |
Number of Forecasts | 162 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 560 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |