Will Egypt and/or Jordan have changes in their constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 November 2024?
Closed Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Amid the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas, regional stability is of high concern (Guardian, Economist, The Hill). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional events" would be a change in the government by means not authorized by the Egyptian and Jordanian constitutions, respectively (e.g., a coup) (Constitution Project - Egypt, Constitution Project - Jordan). For example, the assassination of a leader alone would not count, but the installation of a successor not in accordance with the constitution would count. The fleeing of the constitutional government into exile would count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, only Egypt | 1% | |
Yes, only Jordan | 1% | |
Yes, both Egypt and Jordan | 1% | |
No | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 62 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 255 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |