The Economist asks:
What percentage of the vote will the MORENA party candidate win in the next Mexican general election?
Started
Nov 13, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Closed Jun 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The next Mexican general election is scheduled for 2 June 2024, which includes a presidential election (Economist, AP, Mexico National Electoral Institute). In the event of the renaming of MORENA or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided.
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NOTE 5 December 2023: The question is only concerned with the presidential election.
The question closed "55.0% or more" with a closing date of 2 June 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% or less and will not win the election | 5% | |
| 50.0% or less but will win the election | 15% | |
| More than 50.0% but less than 55.0% | 47% | |
| 55.0% or more | 33% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 216 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 620 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 550 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
