The Economist asks:

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Started Nov 14, 2023 03:00PM
Closed Oct 1, 2024 07:01AM (5 months ago)

Russia's war in Ukraine continues, though Russia floated the idea of talks on the "post-conflict settlement" of the war in October 2023 (Economist, Newsweek, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 1 October 2024" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 March 2024 0%
Between 1 March 2024 and 15 June 2024 0%
Between 16 June 2024 and 30 September 2024 1%
Not before 1 October 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 608
Average for questions older than 6 months: 181
Number of Forecasts 1576
Average for questions older than 6 months: 529
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012402
2.
-0.012402
3.
-0.012402
4.
-0.012402
5.
-0.012402

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Nov 14, 2023 7:07AM PST (322 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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