The Economist asks:
What will be the percentage of national parliament voting intention for the Conservative and Unionist Party (the Conservatives) in the UK as of 27 September 2024, according to Politico?
Closed Sep 27, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The next UK general election is due no later than early 2025, and the currently ruling Conservatives are trailing in the polls (Economist, Politico, Sky News, BBC). The question will be suspended on 26 September 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for the UK no earlier than 2 October 2024 (Politico - Poll of Polls, use default "Smooth" view). Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial.
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The question closed "At least 20%, but less than 27%" with a closing date of 27 September 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 20% | 11% | |
| At least 20%, but less than 27% | 63% | |
| At least 27%, but less than 34% | 18% | |
| At least 34%, but less than 41% | 5% | |
| At least 41%, but less than 48% | 2% | |
| 48% or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 316 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 193 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1042 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 554 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
