Before 1 December 2024, will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont publicly return to Spain?
Closed Aug 08, 2024 06:55AM UTC
Pedro Sánchez was reelected as Spain's prime minister on 16 November 2023 after agreeing to push for a generally unpopular amnesty deal for Catalan separatists, including exiled leader Charles Puigdemont (AP, Guardian, France 24). For a return to Spain to count, Puigdemont's presence in Spain must be publicly known, and entering and leaving the country without it being publicly known that he's in the country would not count (Antena 3 [in Spanish]). Whether Puigdemont returns voluntarily is immaterial.
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NOTE 29 March 2024: Puigdemont publicly visiting Pheasant Island while it is under Spanish rule per the terms of the Treaty of the Pyrenees of 1659 would count (Condé Nast Traveler, Daily Mail).
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 7 August 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 69% | |
No | 31% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 34 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 196 | |
Number of Forecasts | 159 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 560 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |