The Economist asks:

Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024?

Started Nov 27, 2023 06:30PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As global tensions rise among nuclear powers, observers are concerned about the prospect of renewed nuclear weapons testing and a new arms race (Economist, AP, Politico, Arms Control Association). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). Whether China, Russia, and/or the US has detonated a nuclear device in their respective territories will be determined using credible open source reporting. A detonation by China, Russia, or the US must occur within that country's internationally recognized boundaries (including territorial waters and airspace) to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4%
No 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 617
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 1456
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00879
2.
-0.00879
3.
-0.008754
4.
-0.008725
5.
-0.008725

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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