The Economist asks:
Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024?
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
As global tensions rise among nuclear powers, observers are concerned about the prospect of renewed nuclear weapons testing and a new arms race (Economist, AP, Politico, Arms Control Association). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). Whether China, Russia, and/or the US has detonated a nuclear device in their respective territories will be determined using credible open source reporting. A detonation by China, Russia, or the US must occur within that country's internationally recognized boundaries (including territorial waters and airspace) to count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | |
No | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 617 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1456 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |