Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2025?

Started Dec 13, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Over three years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (AP, US Institute of Peace, International Crisis Group). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 3.16% -0.08% -0.49% -0.69%
No 96.84% +0.08% +0.49% +0.69%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username