Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 15 August 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?
Started
Dec 15, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 15, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Closed Aug 15, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine still seeks to regain the territory as war continues in the country (Guardian, NBC News, Hudson Institute). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | |
| No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 145 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 468 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
