When will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approve MDMA (aka midomafetamine or ecstasy) for marketing in the US?

Started Dec 15, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 14, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges

MAPS Public Benefit Corporation announced on 12 December 2023 that it submitted a new drug application (NDA) to the FDA for MDMA to be used in mental health therapy (MAPS Public Benefit Corp., Drug Bank - Midomafetamine, FDA - Drug Approval Process). The type of approval (e.g., Standard, Accelerated) is immaterial (FDA - Development & Approval Process). For the purposes of this question, any rescheduling of MDMA by the Drug Enforcement Administration is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 14 December 2024" with a closing date of 14 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 14 June 2024 0%
Between 14 June 2024 and 13 December 2024 0%
Not before 14 December 2024 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012498
2.
-0.012498
3.
-0.012498
4.
-0.012457
5.
-0.012416

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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