Will NASA's Europa Clipper mission be launched successfully before 2 November 2024?

Started Dec 15, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 14, 2024 05:13PM UTC
Challenges

NASA's Europa Clipper mission, scheduled to launch as soon as 10 October 2024, is designed, among other things, to investigate whether Jupiter's moon Europa could support life (NASA - Europa Clipper, Ars Technica, Phys.org). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful center core stage separation (SpaceX - Falcon Heavy). The question would close early if NASA publicly announces that the mission will not be launched in the current planned launch window (Space Techie).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 93%
No 7%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186
Number of Forecasts 168
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.11537
2.
-0.113188
3.
-0.105052
4.
-0.101764
5.
-0.079392

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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