Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 1 September 2024?
Closed Sep 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement, though domestic political pressures are threatening unity (Politico, US News & World Report, NATO). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 31 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 3% | |
No | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 178 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
Number of Forecasts | 514 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |