Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 1 September 2024?

Started Dec 22, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement, though domestic political pressures are threatening unity (Politico, US News & World Report, NATO). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 31 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 178
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186
Number of Forecasts 514
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00367
2.
-0.00367
4.
-0.00367

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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