Will any of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US fail in 2024?

Started Dec 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
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The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023 sent shock waves through financial markets that regulators hope to prevent in the future (American Banker, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, the 50 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 50 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 30 September 2023 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, a bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 2.00% 0% 0% -1.51%
No 98.00% 0% 0% +1.51%

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