Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in continental Europe resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 January 2025?

Started Jan 05, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by EU law (European Council, see "EU definition of terrorism"). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count. "Continental Europe" includes the territory on the continent of any country that is part of the European single market, as well as Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City (Gov.uk - Countries in the EU and EEA, does not include UK). The hijacking or bombing of an aircraft would count if the aircraft last took flight from continental Europe or fatalities occur within the territory or airspace of a continental European country, and an attack in the territorial waters of a continental European country would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 181
Number of Forecasts 402
Average for questions older than 6 months: 529
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.294851
2.
-0.278696
3.
-0.278502
4.
-0.274906
5.
-0.269952

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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