How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2024?
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
After a relatively quiet wildfire season in 2023, there are concerns that the advent of El Niño could lead to greater wildfire vulnerability (Phys.org, Idaho Mountain Express, NIFC - Outlooks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2022, reported wildfires consumed 7,577,183 acres in the US (NIFC Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2022, NIFC - Wildfires and Acres).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 3.5 million | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Between 3.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| More than 5.0 million but fewer than 6.5 million | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive | 0% | 0% | -0.50% | -3.07% |
| More than 8.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million | 99.00% | +2.00% | +2.50% | +7.00% |
| Between 9.5 million and 11.0 million, inclusive | 1.00% | -2.00% | -1.93% | -3.79% |
| More than 11.0 million but fewer than 12.5 million | 0% | 0% | -0.07% | -0.14% |
| Between 12.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| More than 14.0 million | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |