Which party will win control of the US House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?

Started Jan 19, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2024 12:00AM UTC

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election in 2024, with Republicans hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2022 midterm elections (270 to Win). Elections are scheduled for 5 November 2024 (Ballotpedia). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 5 November 2024 when the outcome is known.

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The question closed "Republican Party" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Democratic Party 56%
Republican Party 44%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 226
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 660
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.595107
2.
-0.59139
3.
-0.586493
4.
-0.578854
5.
-0.554897

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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