Jayce asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of North Korea and those of Japan, South Korea, and/or the US resulting in at least three fatalities before 1 November 2024?
Closed Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
In January 2024, Kim Jong Un, after stating reunification with South Korea was no longer possible, said that North Koreans should be taught that South Korea is a "primary foe and invariable principal enemy" (BBC, AP, CNN). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count, and the fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 2% | |
No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 97 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
Number of Forecasts | 383 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |