Jayce asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of North Korea and those of Japan, South Korea, and/or the US resulting in at least three fatalities before 1 November 2024?

Started Jan 19, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

In January 2024, Kim Jong Un, after stating reunification with South Korea was no longer possible, said that North Koreans should be taught that South Korea is a "primary foe and invariable principal enemy" (BBC, AP, CNN). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count, and the fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 97
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186
Number of Forecasts 383
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.010562
3.
-0.010562
4.
-0.010545
5.
-0.010417

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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