Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many seats will the Identity & Democracy Group (ID) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The ID is a right-wing, Euroskeptic political group (i.e., party) in the EP, which polls indicate is set to gain seats in the June 2024 elections (Guardian, US News & World Report, Identity and Democracy Group, European Parliament - Political Groups, Politico - Poll of Polls). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (European Parliament). There are a total of 720 seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament). The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 27 January 2024: If the ID merges with another EU political group, then seats for the successor group would count.

NOTE 5 June 2024: A group merger must occur before the first day of European Parliamentary elections for the successor group seat wins to count.


The question closed "Fewer than 60" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 60 2%
Between 60 and 69 66%
Between 70 and 79 29%
Between 80 and 89 1%
Between 90 and 99 0%
Between 100 and 109 0%
Between 110 and 119 0%
More than 119 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.706661
2.
-0.70373
3.
-0.669619
5.
-0.096846

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username