Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many seats will the Identity & Democracy Group (ID) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?
Closed Jun 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The ID is a right-wing, Euroskeptic political group (i.e., party) in the EP, which polls indicate is set to gain seats in the June 2024 elections (Guardian, US News & World Report, Identity and Democracy Group, European Parliament - Political Groups, Politico - Poll of Polls). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (European Parliament). There are a total of 720 seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament). The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 27 January 2024: If the ID merges with another EU political group, then seats for the successor group would count.
NOTE 5 June 2024: A group merger must occur before the first day of European Parliamentary elections for the successor group seat wins to count.
The question closed "Fewer than 60" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 60 | 2% | |
Between 60 and 69 | 66% | |
Between 70 and 79 | 29% | |
Between 80 and 89 | 1% | |
Between 90 and 99 | 0% | |
Between 100 and 109 | 0% | |
Between 110 and 119 | 0% | |
More than 119 | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 25 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 159 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |