Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many seats will the Identity & Democracy Group (ID) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?
Closed Jun 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The ID is a right-wing, Euroskeptic political group (i.e., party) in the EP, which polls indicate is set to gain seats in the June 2024 elections (Guardian, US News & World Report, Identity and Democracy Group, European Parliament - Political Groups, Politico - Poll of Polls). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (European Parliament). There are a total of 720 seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament). The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.
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NOTE 27 January 2024: If the ID merges with another EU political group, then seats for the successor group would count.
NOTE 5 June 2024: A group merger must occur before the first day of European Parliamentary elections for the successor group seat wins to count.
The question closed "Fewer than 60" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 60 | 2% | |
Between 60 and 69 | 66% | |
Between 70 and 79 | 29% | |
Between 80 and 89 | 1% | |
Between 90 and 99 | 0% | |
Between 100 and 109 | 0% | |
Between 110 and 119 | 0% | |
More than 119 | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 25 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 159 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |