Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 August 2024, will the United States publicly announce that it has deployed regular ground armed forces to Yemen for the stated purpose of fighting Houthi forces?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As Houthi forces continue firing missiles and drones at commercial ships off the coast of Yemen, the US and allies may further escalate their role and presence in the country (US Dept. of Defense, Al-Monitor, Atlantic Council). For the purposes of this question, "Yemen" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, and "regular" ground armed forces would include military forces not considered Special Forces (Britannica - Special Forces, e.g., Navy SEALs, Army "Delta Force"). The presence of ground forces evacuating nationals or based at diplomatic missions would not count, but the announced deployment of regular ground armed forces for the stated purpose of training forces in Yemen to fight Houthi forces would count. The question would close upon an announcement of the actual presence of armed forces on the ground, and the announcement of the deployment of forces for noncombat purposes (e.g., humanitarian relief, mine clearing from noncombat areas) would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 366
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00433
2.
-0.00433
3.
-0.00433

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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