Iran and Pakistan trades missile strikes against putative militant targets in each other's territory in January 2024, stoking fears of yet another destabilizing situation in the region (ABC News, Al Jazeera, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). For the purposes of this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in two or more fatalities among the Forces of both sides (total, not each). The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count, and the fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.