As of January 2024, the right-wing FPÖ was leading in the polls, which could portend another Euroskeptic government for an EU member state (Politico - Poll of Polls). Elections for the National Council are due by the autumn of 2024, and the closing date will be extended as necessary until either a new chancellor (i.e., prime minister) is sworn in or new elections are called (Austrian Constitution, see Article 70(1), Austrian Embassy - Washington). In the event of a tie for the most seats between FPÖ and another party, the party that received the most votes for the National Council will be considered to have won the most seats. If FPÖ wins the most seats but new elections are called before the appointment of a new chancellor, the question will close "Yes, but a member of the FPÖ will not subsequently become chancellor." The appointment of a new caretaker chancellor will not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.