When will federal legislation granting new border emergency authority to the Secretary of Homeland Security (Secretary) become law?

Started Feb 05, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 31, 2024 07:01AM UTC

On 4 February 2024, a group of US senators released a proposed national security bill that includes, among other things, provisions amending the Immigration and Nationality Act to grant the Secretary new "border emergency authority" (CNN, The Hill, US Senate Appropriations Committee - Summary, see "Sec. 3301"). A different version of the border emergency authority would count so long as it grants the Secretary the authority to generally prohibit the new entry of aliens for a period of time, with or without exceptions (US Senate Appropriations Committee - Emergency National Security Supplemental Bill Text, see "SEC. 3301"). Whether the grant of authority is temporary or permanent is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 31 October 2024" with a closing date of 31 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 4 May 2024 1%
Between 4 May 2024 and 1 August 2024 1%
Between 2 August 2024 and 30 October 2024 7%
Not before 31 October 2024 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006747
2.
-0.006746
3.
-0.006487
4.
-0.006487

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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