The Economist asks:
What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2024?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
With interest rates at multi-decade highs, there are fears that prohibitive refinancing costs for commercial real estate may create broader problems in the US financial system (Economist, NASDAQ, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in August 2024 (FRED). The delinquency rate for the second quarter of 2023 was 0.86%.
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The question closed "At least 1.00%, but less than 2.00%" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 1.00% | 8% | |
| At least 1.00%, but less than 2.00% | 85% | |
| At least 2.00%, but less than 3.00% | 5% | |
| At least 3.00%, but less than 4.00% | 0% | |
| At least 4.00%, but less than 5.00% | 0% | |
| 5.00% or more | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 116 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 345 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
