Who will win the special election for California's 20th Congressional District in 2024?
Started
Feb 9, 2024 06:00PM
Closed May 21, 2024 07:01AM (9 months ago)
Closed May 21, 2024 07:01AM (9 months ago)
Challenges
Representative Kevin McCarthy resigned from the House a few months after being ousted as Speaker, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election scheduled for 21 May 2024 (AP, Bakersfield Californian, Ballotpedia). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 19 March 2024 (KGET).
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The question closed "Vince Fong" with a closing date of 21 May 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Boudreaux | 3% | |
| Vince Fong | 97% | |
| Marisa Wood | 0% | |
| Someone else | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 35 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 182 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 86 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 530 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 13, 2024 1:15PM PST (98 days before close, question was 4% complete)