On 8 February 2024, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Donald Trump's appeal of the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to remove him from the state presidential ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (C-SPAN - Oral Arguments in Trump v. Anderson, AP, Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "0 or 1." The legal bases asserted by a Justice are immaterial. If the opinion of the Court is per curiam, any Justices not named in any concurrence or dissent will be deemed to have voted for the opinion (Cornell - Per Curiam).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "8 or 9" with a closing date of 4 March 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.