How much liquified natural gas (LNG) will the US export between January 2024 and June 2024?

Started Feb 16, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

US LNG exports, which hit a new record in 2023, continue to be essential for Europe and others as Russian gas is not available to many countries (US News & World Report, Yahoo, EIA - Short-term Energy Outlook February 2024). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration for January 2024 to June 2024 as of its first report for June 2024 (EIA). As of the launch of this question, the EIA reported the US exported 2,100,860 million cubic feet (mcf), or 2.100860 trillion cubic feet (tcf), from January 2023 to June 2023.

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The question closed "At least 2.150 tcf, but less than 2.250 tcf" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.050 tcf 0%
At least 2.050 tcf, but less than 2.150 tcf 18%
At least 2.150 tcf, but less than 2.250 tcf 66%
At least 2.250 tcf, but less than 2.350 tcf 13%
At least 2.350 tcf, but less than 2.450 tcf 2%
2.450 tcf or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 24
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 181
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.105597
2.
-0.053086
3.
-0.049987
4.
-0.046708
5.
-0.018075

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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