What will be the value of the FAO Indica (Rice) Index of export prices for October 2024?

Started Feb 23, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

While global prices on most foodstuffs fell in 2023, Indica rice, which accounts for about two-thirds of global rice trade, rose substantially with India's export bans on white and broken rice (USDA, Voice of America, BNN). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO Rice Price Update for October 2024, expected in early November 2024 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the value for the Indica Index for October 2023 was 149.2.

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The question closed "At least 134.0, but less than 148.0" with a closing date of 1 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 106.0 1%
At least 106.0, but less than 120.0 1%
At least 120.0, but less than 134.0 1%
At least 134.0, but less than 148.0 65%
At least 148.0, but less than 162.0 19%
At least 162.0, but less than 176.0 13%
At least 176.0, but less than 190.0 1%
190.0 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.064868
2.
-0.050399
3.
-0.035203
4.
-0.026123
5.
-0.004769

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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