Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that is at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (NOAA). The question will be suspended on 3 October 2024 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 October 2024 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, click "Arctic" on the left side above the graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data is immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2023 was 4.230 million sq. km on 19 September.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "At least 4.2 million sq. km, but less than 4.6 million sq. km" with a closing date of 4 October 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.