When will the percentage of Americans who have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump fall below 50.0%, according to FiveThirtyEight?
Closed Jul 27, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The outcome determined using chart data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "Do Americans have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?" page (FiveThirtyEight, with "POLL TYPE" set to "Favorability," "POLITICIAN/INSTITUTION" set to "Donald Trump," and "SUBPOPULATION" set to "All"). As of the launch of this question, Trump's unfavorable rating on 26 February 2024 was 51.9%. The question will close as of the earliest date for which Trump has an unfavorability rating under 50.0%, but at least seven calendar days must first past from that date to allow for potential revisions.
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NOTE 11 March 2024: There was a typo in the question description that has now been fixed.
The question closed "Not before 27 July 2024" with a closing date of 27 July 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 12 April 2024 | 0% | |
Between 12 April 2024 and 16 May 2024 | 0% | |
Between 17 May 2024 and 20 June 2024 | 2% | |
Between 21 June 2024 and 26 July 2024 | 4% | |
Not before 27 July 2024 | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 137 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
Number of Forecasts | 365 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |