SE_Meyer asks:

When will the price per metric ton of cocoa next close below $4,200, according to Trading Economics?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 18, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Prices for cocoa, the main ingredient for the production of chocolate, have reached all-time highs as El Niño impacts crops in West Africa, which produces much of the world's supply (Yahoo, NASDAQ, BBC). The outcome will be determined using price data (USD/MT) as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, select "1Y" on the lower left of the chart). On 1 March 2024, the price per pound was USD 6,769.00.

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The question closed "Not before 19 October 2024" with a closing date of 19 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 4 May 2024 0%
Between 4 May 2024 and 28 June 2024 0%
Between 29 June 2024 and 23 August 2024 0%
Between 24 August 2024 and 18 October 2024 0%
Not before 19 October 2024 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 190
Number of Forecasts 142
Average for questions older than 6 months: 548
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000205
2.
-0.000205
4.
-0.000186
5.
-0.000125

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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