Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 October 2024, will the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report a situation or projection that any part of the population of Sudan has or will reach "Phase 5 - Famine" of acute food insecurity?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 27, 2024 10:00PM UTC

The IPC is a "multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making," which analyzes, among other things, areas of the world with acute food insecurity, including Sudan (IPC - Overview, Action Against Hunger). The outcome will be determined using table and map details as published by the IPC (IPC - Sudan, see "Latest related analyses"). In its update released 12 December 2023, IPC indicated that a population of 4,898,486 people was projected to reach Phase 4 between October 2023 and February 2024, but none reaching Phase 5 (IPC - Sudan Projection Update 12 December 2023). From this page, you can look at past releases by clicking "--- select ---" next to "Select Another Analysis." The question will close as of the release date of the relevant release, irrespective of whether it states that a part has or will reach Phase 5.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 55%
No 45%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.644268
3.
-0.622059
4.
-0.531602
5.
-0.394141

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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