Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 October 2024, will the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report a situation or projection that any part of the population of Sudan has or will reach "Phase 5 - Famine" of acute food insecurity?
Closed Jun 27, 2024 10:00PM UTC
The IPC is a "multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making," which analyzes, among other things, areas of the world with acute food insecurity, including Sudan (IPC - Overview, Action Against Hunger). The outcome will be determined using table and map details as published by the IPC (IPC - Sudan, see "Latest related analyses"). In its update released 12 December 2023, IPC indicated that a population of 4,898,486 people was projected to reach Phase 4 between October 2023 and February 2024, but none reaching Phase 5 (IPC - Sudan Projection Update 12 December 2023). From this page, you can look at past releases by clicking "--- select ---" next to "Select Another Analysis." The question will close as of the release date of the relevant release, irrespective of whether it states that a part has or will reach Phase 5.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 June 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 55% | |
No | 45% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 27 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 115 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |