Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
As of 15 April 2024, how many members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AoSS) will have notice in place that they wish to leave the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)?
Closed Apr 15, 2024 07:01AM UTC
On 28 January 2024, AoSS members Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced they were withdrawing immediately from ECOWAS, though the ECOWAS treaty states that a member state must give one year's notice before withdrawal (Al Jazeera, BBC, ECOWAS Treaty, see Article 91). For the purposes of this question, the AoSS members are considered to be ECOWAS member states, and any renouncement of their putative leaving in January 2024 so as to remove the notice that they wish to leave ECOWAS will count as that state or states no longer having notice in place (ECOWAS - Final Communique 24 February 2024).
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The question closed "3" with a closing date of 16 April 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1% | |
| 1 | 4% | |
| 2 | 3% | |
| 3 | 93% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 23 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 68 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
