Who will the Senate Republican conference next elect as its new leader?
Started
Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
On 28 February 2024, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that he will step down as the Republican leader in November 2024, which quickly triggered speculation on who would replace him (AP, Politico, Senate.gov - Party Leadership). The date the newly elected leader will fill the position is immaterial.
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The question closed "John Thune (SD)" with a closing date of 13 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| John Barrasso (WY) | 0% | |
| Shelley Moore Capito (WV) | 0% | |
| John Cornyn (TX) | 23% | |
| Tom Cotton (AR) | 3% | |
| Steve Daines (MT) | 0% | |
| Joni Ernst (IA) | 0% | |
| Ron Johnson (WI) | 0% | |
| Rick Scott (FL) | 32% | |
| John Thune (SD) | 34% | |
| Someone else | 2% | |
| No new leader will be elected before 1 January 2025 | 6% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 32 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 136 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
