Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 1 March 2024 and 30 June 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in Sudan due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

In April 2023, fighting erupted between the When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for control of the country, and fighting has continued ever since (CNN, Vox, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Sudan" under "Northern Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Totals for "EVENTS" and "FATALITIES" will appear above the map. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 13,040 total fatalities in Sudan between 1 April 2023 and 31 December 2023.

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NOTE 10 June 2024: ACLED has retired its Dashboard and replaced it with ACLED Explorer. It functions similarly to the Dashboard and the same elements are available for setting parameters.


The question closed "At least 3,000, but fewer than 4,500" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1,500 0%
At least 1,500, but fewer than 3,000 1%
At least 3,000, but fewer than 4,500 97%
At least 4,500, but fewer than 6,000 3%
At least 6,000, but fewer than 8,000 0%
At least 8,000, but fewer than 10,000 0%
10,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 22
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 142
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.055416
2.
-0.038741
3.
-0.038545
4.
-0.036685

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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