When will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles?

Started Mar 15, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As fighting in Gaza continues, concerns remain that there may be a major escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon (Yahoo, Al Arabiya, ABC News). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.

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The question closed "Not before 10 September 2024" with a closing date of 10 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 13 May 2024 0%
Between 13 May 2024 and 11 July 2024 0%
Between 12 July 2024 and 9 September 2024 6%
Not before 10 September 2024 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 576
Average for questions older than 6 months: 541
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.011902
2.
-0.011902
3.
-0.011879
5.
-0.011862

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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