When will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt?

Started Mar 15, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As Israel's offensive in Gaza focuses in the south of Gaza near the Egyptian border, concerns grow and contingencies are being considered for a potential refugee crisis (Yahoo, NPR, US News & World Report). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations, employees of specific organizations, family members of particular persons) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count, and allowing refugees who entered Egypt from Gaza without authorization to stay or go on to another location would not count.

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The question closed "Not before 10 September 2024" with a closing date of 10 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 13 May 2024 0%
Between 13 May 2024 and 11 July 2024 0%
Between 12 July 2024 and 9 September 2024 1%
Not before 10 September 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 202
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002853
3.
-0.002751
4.
-0.002751
5.
-0.002674

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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