Who will win the US Senate election for Arizona in 2024?
Started
Mar 15, 2024 05:00PM
Closed Nov 5, 2024 08:01AM (4 months ago)
Closed Nov 5, 2024 08:01AM (4 months ago)
Challenges
As of 15 March 2024, Republicans are defending 11 seats while Democrats and aligned independents are defending 23 on 5 November 2024 (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).
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The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party candidate | 86% | |
| The Republican Party candidate | 11% | |
| Someone else | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 93 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 182 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 310 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 530 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Mar 15, 2024 10:12AM PDT (235 days before close, question was 0% complete)