ALabinsky asks:

Will Deutsche Bahn announce an agreement to sell its subsidiary DB Schenker before 1 January 2025?

Started Mar 22, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 13, 2024 06:00AM UTC
Tags

In December 2023, Deutsche Bahn, Germany's state-owned national rail operator, announced that it would try to sell its logistics unit, DB Schenker (US News & World Report, Deutsche Bahn - DB Schenker Logistics, DW). Deutsche Bahn is reportedly looking to sign a contract for the sale in the second half of 2024 (Yahoo). In the event that a new entity or joint venture agrees to buy DB Schenker, it would be considered acquired by the entity listed as an answer if that entity or its subsidiary owns a controlling share (i.e., more than 50%) of the acquiring entity. If two or more UAE entities have a controlling share combined, the question will close "Yes, a UAE entity or entities (e.g., DP World, Abu Dhabi Ports)." Acquisition by a wholly-owned subsidiary of an entity listed would count for that entity. Whether the transaction is completed is immaterial. The question will close early if Deutsche Bahn officially announces that it is no longer going to sell DB Schenker.

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The question closed "Yes, to DSV A/S" with a closing date of 12 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, to DSV A/S 77%
Yes, to Maersk (A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S) 0%
Yes, to MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company) 0%
Yes, to a UAE entity or entities (e.g., DP World, Abu Dhabi Ports) 0%
Yes, to UPS (United Parcel Service, Inc.) 0%
Yes, to another entity or entities 16%
No 7%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186
Number of Forecasts 146
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.056117
2.
-0.519754
3.
-0.512463
4.
-0.508864
5.
-0.481524

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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