Before 13 June 2024, will the Federal Reserve announce a change in the total cap of assets that run off its balance sheet each month?
Closed May 01, 2024 06:00PM UTC
While the Federal Reserve last raised the federal funds target range in the summer of 2023, it has continued to reduce the level of assets on its balance sheet as part of its program of monetary "quantitative tightening" in its efforts to combat inflation (New York Fed, Investopedia, Wolf Street, Yahoo, Congressional Research Service). The outcome will be determined using information in the statements and implementation notes release by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Federal Reserve - FOMC Meeting Calendar). As of the launch of this question, the total cap of assets was $95 billion each month, $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 20 March 2024). A change in the amounts for Treasury securities and MBS that results in no net change from the total $95 billion will not count, and the date the change will take effect is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes, it will decrease the total cap" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, it will increase the total cap | 11% | |
Yes, it will decrease the total cap | 54% | |
No | 35% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 19 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
Number of Forecasts | 46 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |