What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for October 2024?
Closed Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate has remained near historic lows in early 2024, but cracks are appearing in the labor market (CNBC, MSN). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS') official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released (FRED). The October 2024 rate is scheduled to be released on 1 November 2024, the Friday before the US elections scheduled for 5 November 2024 (BLS - Release Schedule).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 4.1%, but less than 4.4%" with a closing date of 1 November 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.8% | 5% | |
| At least 3.8%, but less than 4.1% | 31% | |
| At least 4.1%, but less than 4.4% | 60% | |
| At least 4.4%, but less than 4.7% | 3% | |
| At least 4.7%, but less than 5.0% | 1% | |
| At least 5.0%, but less than 5.3% | 0% | |
| At least 5.3%, but less than 5.6% | 0% | |
| 5.6% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 56 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 239 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
