Before 4 December 2024, will the World Health Organization (WHO) or US CDC report a human case of H5N1 avian influenza infection in the Western Hemisphere where sustained human-to-human transmission is the suspected cause?
Closed Dec 04, 2024 08:01AM UTC
H5N1 avian influenza has recently begun killing thousands of mammals in South America, and mammalian cases are being reported in cases in the US (UC Davis, Science.org, KFF News). Human cases are rare and are generally suspected to have originated from contact with infected animals, but the prospect of human-to-human transmission has health officials concerned (WHO - Influenza Monthly Risk Assessment, CDC - Avian Flu, CDC). WHO defines "sustained human-to-human transmission" as "transmitting easily from one person to the next and then further onward" (STAT).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 4 December 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | |
| No | 91% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 162 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
