The Economist asks:

Will Nikol Pashinyan cease to be the prime minister of Armenia before 1 October 2024?

Started Apr 05, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Fallout from Azerbaijan's September 2023 conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority, continues to put heavy pressure on Armenia's government (Economist, AP, Politico). Pashinyan staying on in a caretaker prime minister role subsequent with his resignation as prime minister would still count as Pashinyan ceasing to be prime minister (Constitution of Armenia, see Article 149, France24).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7%
No 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 146
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 451
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.063524
3.
-0.063524
4.
-0.063403
5.
-0.059893

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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